ALBANY, NEW YORK (2008-02-22) On Tuesday a special election will be held for a Senate seat in Northern New York. The race could have major repercussions far beyond the district, and help determine the future of the State Senate, and whether it's held by Republicans or Democrats.

When Senator James Wright of Watertown resigned a couple of months ago to take a more lucrative job as a lobbyist, it was believed by both Republican and Democratic operatives that the seat would remain safely in GOP hands. But now, just before the vote, a Zogby poll has found the democratic candidate leading, although the numbers are too close to call.

In between, both sides have been spending furiously on TV ads.

Democrat Darrel Aubertine, a farmer who grew up helping tend his family's dairy cows, has been an Assemblyman for the past five years.

The geographically large Senate district hugs Lake Ontario, and includes Watertown, Oswego, and Canton. While Aubertine is from the rural north of the district, his Republican opponent, Will Barclay lives closer to Oswego.

Barclay, who practices law in Syracuse, is a member of a prominent family. His father was a State Senator, and ambassador to El Salvador.

Aubertine is trying paint Barclay as an elitist, focusing on the Barclay family practice of charging local fisherman for access to their land, which abuts the Salmon River, Barclay is trying to portray Aubertine as an outsider, aligned with two unpopular things in the district; New York City, and Governor Eliot Spitzer.

Steve Greenberg, a political analyst with Siena College polling, says the outcome of the special election could have wide ranging repercussions in New York State government. If the Democrat wins, then Republicans would be clinging to control of the Senate by just one seat. And he says that would set state government into "a bit of an uproar".

"It really would set the tenor for the rest of this legislative session," Greenberg said, citing the looming state budget negotiations and remaining session issues.

The contentious relations between the highest ranking Republican in the State Senate, Majority Leader Joe Bruno, and the top elected Democrat, Governor Eliot Spitzer, could grow even more strained.

If the Republican candidate wins, however, the GOP could be invigorated in it's quest to retain control of the Senate and even gain seats in the fall, when all 212 positions in the legislature will be open for elections.

"If the Republicans hold on, I think it will give them some confidence heading into November," Greenberg said.

The outcome of the special election will hinge on voter turn out, and which side is more successful in getting their people to the polls. There, the Republicans have the advantage, with more enrolled party members, and the backing of several major unions, whose members can be counted on to help out. But perhaps a larger factor in one of the most northern regions of New York is the weather, and snow is predicted for Tuesday.